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Barozi on 11 September 2020
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haxxiy said:
Barozi said:

"they never stopped living normally"

You mean aside from having a bigger economic decline and higher unemployment rate than the other Nordic countries?

"they have made their largest number of test last week, conclusion, it is nearly over there"

"Over the past week the country carried out more than 120,000 tests, of which only 1.3 per cent identified the disease."

Germany's been below 1.3% since the end of May (with one week in between slightly above it at 1.37%). That's hardly an impressive number and shows just how much worse the Swedes handled it. I didn't check the numbers but I think Denmark, Norway and Finland had a much much lower number than Germany even.

And let's not talk about the death rate which is 5 times higher than Denmark, 9 times higher than Finland and almost 12 times higher than Norway...

Positivity rates around 1% are irrelevant and interchangeable considering noise from false positives or sample contamination.

Besides, both Norway and Denmark now have higher cases per capita, and even in absolute cases, if we are talking about Denmark. So, who knows what winter will bring. It's a sprint, not a race. Not that I'm rooting for disaster, of course, but the trend seems clear all over Europe and that will have to be reckoned and dealt with, with all the expected impacts.

There was also this:

The now completely laughable model from the Imperial College for Sweden, that evidently way, way overshot both the IFR and percentage of infected people until the outbreak ends.

"Positivity rates around 1% are irrelevant and interchangeable considering noise from false positives or sample contamination."

That's not the point. The point is that it took ages for Sweden to get close to 1% while many many other countries have been around 1% for months.

"Besides, both Norway and Denmark now have higher cases per capita, and even in absolute cases, if we are talking about Denmark."

I'm not blindly going to believe the first part but I'm not in the mood to find their data. Let's just say even if it's true, it's probably not far off from Sweden's current numbers, so by your definition just statistical noise.

The second part of that statement however is just misleading at best and plain wrong at worst. Denmark currently has more confirmed cases because they are testing far far more people. ~45k daily tests (0.78% of the population) vs. 18k daily tests (0.18% of the population) (based on 126k tests last week).

That's roughly 4 times more tests per capita in Denmark compare to Sweden. You talk about confirmed cases while it's obvious that Sweden's true daily case count is quite a bit higher than Denmark's.