Which game will sell more?

[UnderwaterFunktown]

IcaroRibeiro said:

UnderwaterFunktown said:
Well I've predicted that MK8DX will hit 50 mil and while it's certainly not impossible I don't see AC going quite that high.
AC will probably overtake it in sales by the end of the year, but I expect MK8DX to retake the lead somewhere far down the line.

40 million is fairly doable, but 50 million?

Current attachment rate for MK8 is 42% and it's decreasing, not increasing. For the last 4 quarters the attachment rate for MK8 was 36%, looking to this trend I'm guessing something more like 32-34% for the next years. For MK8 sell 50 million with a 32-34% attachment rate Switch will need to sell from 147 to 156 million copies

And I don't think it's a realistic prediction for Switch

The other possibility is MK8 having crazy legs, about 1.5 million for each quarter in the next 4 years even in the years of Switch's death and finish its run with about 40% of attachment hate

If anything, MK8 will end over 40 million, but behind 50 million 

Regardless of whether its due to higher Switch sales in general fact is that MK8 shipments have been increasing with each year:

2017: 7,33 mil (launched in april)
2018: 7,69 mil
2019: 7,94 mil

And I fully expect that to happen again this year since its currently at 3,78 mil after 2 quarters compared to 2,87 mil after 2 quarters last year.

That puts it at 31 mil or more at the end of this year. I expect the Switch to have almost 4 years of lifespan and at least 60 mil sales left in it after that. 19 more mil for MK8 seems quite achievable to me given that. This is all assuming ofc that MK9 isn't happening on Switch.