Will the new generation have an impact on Nintendo Switch sales?

[KBG29]

The competition is going to really heat up against Switch going into 2021. Not only will they be contesting with PS5 and XBSX, but they will also be competing against a revamped PS Now/Remote Play, a fully realized Game Pass/xCloud, and Stadia.

I still believe that we are going to see Switch sales follow the same path as Wii and 3DS, with a massive fall off in the near future. By 2022, I think Switch will be limping along.

The problem will be a lack of software. Nintendo has already put out Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda, Smash, and Pokemon. They still have Metroid, Pikmin, and Star Fox to bring new experiences to Switch, but those franchises are no where near those already released. I don't feel that a Zelda BOTW 2, Mario Odyssey 2, or Mario Kart 9 will have a major impact on sales.

As for 3rd parties. We will see more and more titles not making it to the Switch over the coming months. Even those that do, like Fifa or NBA 2K, will still be watered down versions of the PS4/XBO game, while PS5, XBS, Stadia, and PC will have fully next gen versions from the next year on.

I just feel that there are going to be too many better ways to play one version of a game across Home and Mobile devices. Remote Play and xCloud (Beta), already offer a better way to play the 3rd party games people already own on Mobile's and Tablets. By the end of 2020, PS Now, xCloud, and Stadia will be in full swing, offering a hassel free way to play the games people already own, without having to rely on their console at home. At that point, the only advantage Switch has will be greatly dimenished, and I honestly don't know what Nintendo does to remedy that. As even a new Switch will face this competition. I think it is going to come down to Nintendo relying exclusively on their 1st Party, or partenering with a cloud service provider to offer 3rd party games on par with the competition.