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Otter on 27 June 2020
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archbrix said:
Otter said:

The 3DS was dropped like a rock, it was completely replaced. 

Obviously anyone saying 2022 Switch 2 has very different ideas about how Switch 2 will function within the market. As we can see looking at the launch of Series X, all of its first party games will also be playable on Xbox One. No one is expecting the Switch to be replaced in 2022. 

First off, no, 3DS wasn't dropped like a rock, but for the sake of argument... so what?  The point is that it was Nintendo's money maker, didn't live up to their expectations and it still got six years of life and dev support before their next console.  Switch's life before its successor won't be shorter than the 3DS.

Second, if you think that "No one is expecting the Switch to be replaced in 2022" then you haven't been paying attention. There are plenty of people who erroneously believe that Nintendo will release a new, more powerful Switch to combat the arrival of the new consoles.  Will there be a redesign of the current Switch?  Inevitably.  But will there be an all new console that supports an all new library?  Not any time soon.  And yes, when Switch 2 does arrive it will be backwards compatible just like Series X/One, obviously.



lol, I am one of those people. What I'm saying is that people's concepts of console succession and commercial success are very rigid. Times are changing. 

If you see the Switch as the 3DS' successor, that was a hard reset where Switch immediately received flagship Nintendo games that were not available on the 3DS. A lot of them. When people talk about a Switch 2 in 2022, many of us are not talking about a platform which arrives and forces the OG Switch out of the market right away with a whole bunch of exclusive Nintendo experiences.

Also Arbirary comparison don't make the best sense here, the 3DS may never reach the Gameboy Advance 81m figure but the GBA was replaced a lot quicker (4years). 

Remember the new3DS/DSi? These received exclusive software, and were weird late gen updates. Instead of doing a weird refresh or simply having a Switch Pro, I think Nintendo will just have a new Switch which will eventually transition into its own platform. Nintendo has found their mojo now and I think will more aggressively keep people in their echosystem and expand their online services with iterative hardware & soft generational leaps. No more starting from zero every 6 years.

This is an extremely safe business direction, the main counter argument is that it hasn't been done before in the game space but we can see MS moving towards this. The other thing is people are more obsessed by unit sales of individual platforms then they are about the actual stability and share value of Nintendo the company.

I think the Switch 2's release will not be based on the current Switch's sales. The Switch will inevitably be in decline in 2022, it's just a matter of when Nintendo feel the technology is right to offer a generational leap because I don't think Switch 2 will have any USP compared to Switch 1. And just as the Tegra X1 was released 2 years prior to the actual Switch, a Switch 2 in 2022 will not actually be any weaker than if the platform was released in 2024. A hard generational transition forces you to launch at a more accessible price since your entire business is leaning towards the new platform. A soft transition gives room for the Switch 2 to start at a premium price and live next to the more mass market $199-249 Switch for casuals, budget house holds and late adopters.