curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:
You keep predicting that Switch sales will fall off a cliff, but that's not going to happen. Switch has a healthy software pipeline, so once the platform has reached its peak, it will stay on a plateau. At worst, 2023 is going to be first year of notable decline, so waiting until 2024 for a successor won't be a problem for Nintendo.
You have to remember that Europe and the rest of the world trail behind Japan and North America in adoption rate, so by the time the latter two decline, the former two will still have room for growth. That's why global sales will form a plateau.
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I don't think it will fall off a cliff, just that it will have a normal decline, with this year most likely being its peak year, and that by 2023 it'll be time for its successor.
Ideally, you don't want to wait too long or until your system is already dead before replacing it. By 2023 Switch should be selling similarly to how 3DS was when it was replaced in 2017.
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3DS sold 9.7 million in 2014, and you expect 2020 to be Switch's peak year, which means 19.4 million at minimum.
If switch is doing +100% over 3DS in its fourth year, why would it be +0% in its seventh?
