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curl-6 on 20 June 2020
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RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

I can't see Nintendo waiting later than 2023 to replace the Switch.

Sales will be well passed their peak by then and it will be time to move on.

You keep predicting that Switch sales will fall off a cliff, but that's not going to happen. Switch has a healthy software pipeline, so once the platform has reached its peak, it will stay on a plateau. At worst, 2023 is going to be first year of notable decline, so waiting until 2024 for a successor won't be a problem for Nintendo.

You have to remember that Europe and the rest of the world trail behind Japan and North America in adoption rate, so by the time the latter two decline, the former two will still have room for growth. That's why global sales will form a plateau.

I don't think it will fall off a cliff, just that it will have a normal decline, with this year most likely being its peak year, and that by 2023 it'll be time for its successor.

Ideally, you don't want to wait too long or until your system is already dead before replacing it.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 21 June 2020