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I think Ghost of Tsushima will take this; it seems to have more hype behind it, while the Nintendo fanbase seems lukewarm and indecisive towards Origami King. The Switch boost should apply and I expect PMOK will still go on to be the best selling Paper Mario game to date, but the series has never been huge and I expect it'll do less than 6 million lifetime, while I think Tsushima can exceed that.

Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

After all, few people have ever heard the name Tsushima. 

I had; pivotal pre-dreadnaught battleship engagement in 1905 where Japan crushed Russia, strongly influencing the future course of naval warfare doctrine. :p