I think Ghost of Tsushima will take this; it seems to have more hype behind it, while the Nintendo fanbase seems lukewarm and indecisive towards Origami King. The Switch boost should apply and I expect PMOK will still go on to be the best selling Paper Mario game to date, but the series has never been huge and I expect it'll do less than 6 million lifetime, while I think Tsushima can exceed that.
After all, few people have ever heard the name Tsushima.
I had; pivotal pre-dreadnaught battleship engagement in 1905 where Japan crushed Russia, strongly influencing the future course of naval warfare doctrine. :p
Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.