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Otter on 09 May 2020
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Wyrdness said:
Otter said:

_For me the basis of this "argument" is saturation. It's not debatable if it will happen, but when. Naturally some will be right, some will be wrong. I can't be held to the arguments of others who essentially made different assessments from me on that saturation point. I think I already addressed the topic of AC being a potential outlier, including its alignment with Corona. The only thing to outline here is that I don't expect many (if any) system sellers of the kind we've seen already going forward in the next 3 years and thus I don't think numbers will maintain their current level next fiscal year, meanwhile you and others in this thread feel the opposite. I will keep my eyes peeled for the next AC size system seller


_None of this counters my point. The specific quarter Pokemon Sun and Moon was released was actually down 1m compared to Q3 of the year prior. The point is simply don't expect returning franchises to boost or sustain hardware levels to that  seen at the systems peak when said franchises first landed.

You're incorrect as that quarter was up from the prior Nintendo themselves reported the quarter was up 10% this counters your point

https://www.polygon.com/2017/1/31/14454408/pokemon-sun-moon-sales-nintendo-3ds-future

"Nintendo reported sales of 6.45 million 3DS units during its third fiscal quarter, a figure that was up 10 percent year-over-year. The quarter included the release of two limited-edition models of the 3DS, which sold out instantly; it remains hard to find 3DS systems in stores."

This shows a returning franchise had a boost to the point the platform did better than the prior FY and this was during a period when it was being replaced as well NS had already been revealed and in the following year 3DS still matched it's prior FY this goes against what you're trying to say.

The thing is you're repeating the same argument of others that's why someone pointed out that it's been parroted for years now the argument just gets adjusted from hindsight to be reissued again this time next year someone else will be using the same argument.

Oh sorry, my mistake, I was comparing the wrong quarters 

Interesting, the quarter before Sun/Moon was up even a higher percentage YOY. Pokemon Go alone lifted 3DS hardware

"Although Pokémon Go itself isn't a Nintendo game, the company said the ubiquitous smartphone app drove sales of 3DS hardware up 19 percent as well as sales of earlier Pokémon games for the platform. "

https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/26/13414878/nintendo-earnings-q2-2016-switch

This still remains. "The point is simply don't expect returning franchises to boost or sustain hardware levels to that  seen at the systems peak when said franchises first landed."

Pokemon X/Y 2013
3DS hardware FY ending march 2014; 12m
Pokemon Omega Ruby/Sapphiere

Pokemon Omega Ruby/Sapphire 2014
3DS hardware FY ending march 2014; 8.7m

Pokemon Sun/Moon 2016 
3DS hardware FY ending march 2017; 7m


Even if you feel like blaiming the Switch impending arrival you could just look at the Pokemon Omega Ruby/Sapphire FY year

Its mind numbing that I'm having to make this argument so I will stop lol. If you think the Switch will sell 20m for the next 3 years due to returning franchises, i can only say lets see. I don't see any evidence so far