Agree on MK9 being Switch 2 launch title.
Yeah people who predict 2022 are crazy. 2023 feels about right to me, but I could absolutely see a March 2024 release if sales are still strong in 2022. Let's not forget that they only have one system now. So they're not gonna wait for it to languish with low sales for a long time before bringing out the next one. If sales are slowing down significantly by 2022 we'll see Switch 2 in 2023. But if it's still selling like 15 million in 2022 then a 2024 release date makes more sense. I guess considering they haven't even done a price cut yet, and probably will launch a premium version of the system like next year, I could totally see a Spring 2024 launch being more likely than Spring 2023.
I actually do like the idea of a 2024 release date more because that gives Nintendo an extra year to get beefier tech in Switch 2 which would bring the system closer to PS5/XBoxSeries which means more likely to pick up scaled down third party games from those systems, plus more likely to easily run any port from PS4/XBO.
Yea it definitely depends on how long the Switch sales stay strong, but since Switch demand is insane atm and like you said it hasn't gotten a price cut yet I think sales are going to be really great for the next two years and still quite solid in 2022. I also personally don't mind them waiting a little longer. Sure the 3rd party AAA presence will fade, but the next platform will be better equipped for them as a result and its not like those games have ever been the main selling point of Nintendo consoles anyways.