Nintendo's success with the Switch both a blessing and a curse?

[Mnementh]

thismeintiel said:

Mnementh said:

Which experience will Switch owners miss out on with the release of PS5 and XBoxSeX, that the Switch currently has or that the PS4 and XB1 haven't? As cool as ghost of Tsushima looks, similar experiences exists with Sekiro. Hellblade II? Well, Hellblade is even on Switch. Godfall? I have no idea what that does, but what little we saw it is an action game alike DMC or Bayonetta. VR? Currently on PS4. What else? New version of Battlefield and Call of Duty? Will they extend the formula?

So far it seems, the early lineup of the new consoles offer either only experiences the Switch has, or that current consoles have and Switch misses - and that doesn't keep Switch from selling so far. If the generation goes on, experience say the game makers start to utilize the abilities of the new gen more extensively. At that point it might offer new experiences. But that is 2022 or later. At which point a successor to the Switch will be close.

Switch will peak in 2020 or 2021, despite the new offerings from Sony and MS.

Also, it is interesting how many posters have the feeling the new gen might hamper Switch sales, but without any data or reasoning backing them up. I myself thought it might be a possibility - over a year ago. Since then sales data and game offerings have shown that this doubt was unneeded. The current wave of posts express more the hope of their writers, than a thorough analysis.

EDIT: If posters are so confident that PS5 and XBoxSeX will offer an experience that will make Switch look unattractive, it would be logical to make a bet that either PS5 or XboxSeX will outsell Switch in 2021. I am willing to bet against it, as I was willing many years back to bet against that PS3 will eventually outsell Wii lifetime. For this bet to decide we will have at least only to wait two years.

(1) Personally, I think this year was Switch's peak. At least this fiscal year ending March 2020.  They have a $199 SKU, now, and have released pretty much all of their big hitters. (2) The reason next gen may hamper it is that it will be getting fewer 3rd party titles because of the power discrepancy, (3) and it won't be seen as the new toy on the block.  Of course, like I stated, it will mostly be because it will be getting long in the tooth and will have fewer big releases.  These things don't sell forever.  And a Nintendo peaking late in its life just goes against their own console history.  Just like people thought that the Wii was going to easily pass PS2 with how it was selling for the first 3 years, but didn't even come close, 55M+ short. 

(4) Also, that would be an easy bet for you to win.  Of course the Switch will outsell them in 2021.  They'll be new consoles with smaller libraries.  Even the popular PS4 shipped just 15.4M in its first full year.  If the PS5 is $499, the Switch should be able beat it by 3M-5M.  If Sony works some kind of magic and can get it out for $399, Switch should still beat it by 1M or so.  2022 is when the new consoles will start to hit their stride, and Switch, naturally, will still be declining.

(1) While it is theoretically possible that the Switch sells weaker next year, no signs are pointing towards that. Remember the PS4 in it's peak year started to have weaker holiday sales, indicating the next year sales might cool down. No such sign for Switch so far.

(2) The Switch already doesn't get all the third-party titles. Exactly that was the reason why the Switch was declared DOA in 2017 in this exact forum.

(3) Well, I constantly heard over the last two and a half years that PS4 and XB1 are more powerful than Switch, so it never was the new toy.

(4) You assume the Switch peaks naturally in 2019 so that this will be two years after peak, and you think PS5 and XBX offer something so enticing, that it drives people away from Switch. This in combination should make it easy for Sony and MS to outsell Switch in 2021.