BengaBenga on 25 June 2008
My 2ct:
Every RPG lover had a PS2. Period.
The RPG community will be much more split this time around. 360 gets some great JRPG's so some of the PS2 owners will go 360 (not in Japan, but certainly in the US). Wii will also have much more RPG support than GameCube (we'll have Tales next week and quite some are announced). PS3 actually has least RPGs announced, but does have FF, which is the biggest name.
I think people will be "skipping" FF this gen in favour of more other RPG's. FF has become more casual over the years.
I think install base won't matter too much, only in Japan.
So my prediction:
1.7 million in Japan
2.5 million US
1.9 million Others
= 6.1 million
