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sundin13 on 12 November 2018
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outlawauron said:
sundin13 said:

While we cannot specifically equate the results to causal factors by simply looking at the homicide rate, looking at only correlations, this is objectively false.

Here is a chart showing Australia's homicide rate with a trend line:

The homicide rate was cut almost in half between 2013 and 1996. Feel free to make the argument that there was no causal link (if you can back it up with something), but looking at correlations (which is what this discussion has been focusing on), claiming Australia's homicide rate hasn't fallen since 1996 is demonstrably false.

The United States homicide rate has decreased at a very similar rate in the same time period. There's obviously no gun ban here, so I'm saying that it's decreased in line with the rest of the world. The same pattern is observable in every large 1st world country. Violent crimes are going down across the world.

That doesn't really mean too much when the question is more about the rate of decline than the decline itself. If naturally the homicide rate would have dropped to 1.5 and with the firearm ban it dropped to 1.0, that is still a significant change. That is why I am saying that you can't really make any determinations based on the homicide rate alone.

There are also certain factors in, for example, the United States which aren't seen in Australia in relation to that drop. The United States had a large peak in crime from about 1970-1990. 1996 in the United States was the middle of a steep drop in homicide rates, which were largely returning to the normal after that large peak. In Australia, homicide rates were steady and fairly low for several decades before the mid '90s, so there wasn't really a spike to come down from. Further, the relative rarity of firearm crime in Australia before the ban makes it a fairly poor comparison point for the United States.

That said, I am not arguing that causal factors resulted in this decline, just that looking only at homicide rates will not really prove any point.

I should also add that I am not in favor of a policy similar to Australia's gun ban in the USA. I think it would be a significant overreach, and due to the differences in the two countries, I think the only things that it is really useful in showing is that the fear of a criminal haven without guns is likely unrealistic and severely overblown, and that restriction of legal firearms does impact the availability for criminals.