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sundin13 on 08 October 2018
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eva01beserk said:
sundin13 said:

Numbers which indicate what percentage of crimes are not reported to the police are not "based on nothing". BJS has a National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which I believe was referred to as the "gold standard" in your video source. This survey utilizes different methods than the UCR reports. UCR gets data from the police to determine how many crimes were handled in any given year. NCVS gets data from individuals to determine how many victimizations occurred in any given year. This data includes information on whether or not each victimization is reported to the police.

Second, I believe you are misconstruing the argument you have been presented. Not all of the links that you were presented utilized NISVS data. The first link seems to partially use it, but beyond that, it doesn't seem like that specific survey is really utilized much in those links. Some link to various things which cannot be fact checked (a book or an educational video), but by and large, criticizing that one survey does not respond to the point that is being made.

To address the original claim:

"Everybody knows one woman who has been the victim of sexual assault or rape." While obviously the claim is not literally true, we can look into whether it is statistically true.

The rate of sexual assault or rape is about 1/1000/year (Worth noting that this is a vast under-estimate. The numbers for the last few years have been around 1.1-1.6, and these numbers have drastically dropped over the last 30 years). The average person knows 600 people, therefore using the most simple math, the average person knows 0.6 people who are sexually assaulted or raped every year. Assuming the average lifespan is 70 and there are zero victimizations in the first 12 years of someones life (as the stats don't include individuals under 12), the average person would know 34 people who were victims of sexual assault or rape over their lifetime.

That is actually a lot higher than I was expecting. Is my math wrong somewhere?

Ok as long as you dont asume that 1 is 5 myth, were good. While I still believe 1 in 1000 is still to unrealistic high, that is something I am confortable using in a hypothetical argument. 

Ok now we are back at square one. How do they know they go unreported? If you go asking person by person if they where asaulted in anyway and they claim yes, but it was not reported to the police, then it still dosent mean much. You cant tell if it was true or false. Cuz again most acounts of asault now days are based on feelings. The most you can count is the 20% as actual numbers, then say theres another 4x as many women who "probably" where asaulted. Wich will bring the number down. Again, we canot asume anybody that just makes a claim is telling the truth.

I have a problem with your math. In what world do you meet 600 people per year? Im 28 and dont think I can name 100 people of the top of my head. If you were to say 600 in a life I would say maybe, but 34k if you start after 12? SO no, you are still way off.

First of all, the 1 in 5 vs 1 in 1000 statistics are fundamentally different. 1 in 5 is over a lifetime and 1 in 1000 is per year. Also, 1 in 5 I believe refers to females only which further inflates the numbers because females are disproportionately victims of sexual violence. If you multiply the 1 in 1000 figure by the average lifespan, it turns into 1 in 12ish and if you account for females only, it would probably shrink to maybe 1 in 8, but that is just a guess (and I'm not sure how valid simple multiplication would be to convert yearly figures to lifetime figures). Basically, don't compare the two numbers.

Second, the whole middle part of your argument is fairly ridiculous. You assert that a survey which your own source refers to as a "gold standard" and is considered to be one of the best measures we have of crime figures is wrong because 80% of reports are false. That is ridiculous. Patently ridiculous. There is no reason to believe in a widespread epidemic of people lying to anonymous BJS surveys. You will have to validate that claim in order to assert that it actually holds any statistical weight. I see no reason to entertain that notion further without any actual non-anecdotal proof.

Third, I never said you meet 600 people per year. I said that the average person knows 600 people. This number came from a paper out of Columbia which sought to answer the question of how many people does the average person know (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3666355/). It is the most robust answer I am aware of. I do not consider this to be an error in my math.

If that is the only issue you take with my math, I will consider the estimate of 34 accurate.