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Mnementh said:
TheBraveGallade said:

Well Pokemon for one.

 

Fire emblem awakening is confirmed over 2 mil before digital, and fates is so close it isn't even funny.

 

Persona 5 is at 1.4 before digital

 

Every DQ game ever sells like over 2 mil in Japan alone.

 

Both braverly default and second also beat 2 mil I think

All of these are vgchartz January numbers btw

Drat, I forgot Pokemon. That surely beats 2M in every incarnation. Fire emblem awakening is indeed past 2M, Fates scratches the 2M. But it is also a combination with strategy, which is a market where turn-based works better. Persona is at 1.7M if you add PS3-sales. Dragon Quest XI is at 1.8M for 3DS and 1.4M for PS4. It has passed 2M if you count both together. Bravely Default is at 1.4M, I don't find data for second on VGC.

So, what does it say for Octopath? I think we can agree, it probably won't tap into the Pokemon-market. Fire Emblem with it's combination with strategy can go past 2M, but not by much. Octopath doesn't have that element. persona 5 one of the highest acclaimed turn-based RPGs of the last time is below 2M on two platforms. Counting digital it might beat 2M, but barely. So that leaves Dragon Quest, which in combiation is somewhere at 3M, not 6M. Maybe that can clear 6M including digital after the Switch release on 3 platforms. Octopath should manage that on one platform? Unlikely.

 

Digging deeper,

Bowser's inside story sold 4.5mil

Dream team sold 2.2 mil

While all DQ games sell over 2mil the last DQ game to sell really well is 9 on the DS with 5.2 mil.

Then again DQ never had the presence  in the west...

 

The closest thing I can find to compare this game to is bravely default, but apparently it's actually doubling THAT game in sales so I think 3M is a lock in.

 

I think the reason they stocked so low is because they were expecting bravely default sales levels. Currently the demand is at least double that.