How Well will Bayonetta 2 sell on Switch?

[Salnax]

Bayonetta 2 is coming to Switch in February along with the original(!), which is good news for fans of the Switch and the Bayonetta series. But looking forward, I'm not sure how well the game will actually do on the Switch, all things considered.

 

Factors Helping Bayonetta 2

• The Switch is much more popular than the Wii U was even at its height in late 2014, so plenty of Switch owners would never have gotten to play it.
• The character is arguably more popular than ever, thanks in part to her appearance in Super Smash Bros and the PC version of the original game.
• The game will likely have a second wind of sales when Bayonetta 3 is released, likely in 2019 or later.
• No other action games seem to be coming to the Switch around the same time.
• Includes the original!

 

Factors Hurting Bayonetta 2

• None of the Bayonetta games have ever sold amazingly well. Bayonetta 2 only sold 0.84 million despite coming bundled with the original.
• Some games ported to Switch did noticably worse than even on the Wii U. Pokken had half the week 1 sales on Switch as on Wii U, and LEGO City had a third as many sales. The main exception is Mario Kart 8, which seems to be roughly on par between its Wii U and Switch versions despite the Switch version including new content.
• Other Action games on Switch, such as Fire Emblem Warriors, have not done very well thus far.

 

I personally am expecting Bayonetta 2 on Switch to perform about as well as the Wii U version, in the rough 700,000 to 900,000 sales range. The upcoming third game can then sell significantly better, assuming it's on par with the first two entries in the series.