I think Nintendo Switch won't blow anyone away in EU and US this holiday in terms of sales without it. I believe some people will be surprised that Switch does kind of average if it goes into this holiday with just Mario as it's only seller.
Of course, average would be multiple times bigger than Wii U ever did, and it's still only year one, so it's all good overall. But if Switch doesn't get Pokemon, it's chances of a 1m+ November and December NPD are slim







