NiN has about 80 million customers based on Wii U and 3DS alone. That's not to mention anybody else who owns a previous NiN console or handheld that hasn't upgraded.
With the Switch, it shouldn't be that hard for NiN to get 50% of those 80 million to buy a Switch over the years as the price comes down. That would be 40 million Switch's. If they can sell 10 million a year, for 4 years, that's not bad at all.
Then imagine if they can get just a small portion of those casual Wii customers to buy a Switch as the price drops. Your talking 50 million Switch's or more now.
Where Switch will end up exactly is pretty hard to say right now. It depends a lot on whether or not NiN doubles down on Switch and leaves 2DS and 3DS behind completely, or launches a Switch mini that takes their place, or just continues on with their current hybrid and handheld offerings.
The other BIG factor is the price. If NiN pulls another Wii U and keeps the price too high, it will really hurt Switch sales over time. If they reduce the price over time like they should, they will sell A LOT more of them.
PS1 - ! - We must build a console that can alert our enemies.
PS2 - @- We must build a console that offers online living room gaming.
PS3 - #- We must build a console that’s powerful, social, costs and does everything.
PS4 - $- We must build a console that’s affordable, charges for services, and pumps out exclusives.
PRO -%-We must build a console that's VR ready, checkerboard upscales, and sells but a fraction of the money printer.
PS5 - ^ -We must build a console that’s a generational cross product, with RT lighting, and price hiking.
PRO -&- We must build a console that Super Res upscales and continues the cost increases.
