The Switch launch numbers are meaningless

[EricHiggin]

zorg1000 said:

we can safely say that the majority of people bought a 3DS for the software and not the hardware so the change in form factor really should have little to no negative affect on sales. We can also see that pretty much the entire expanded audience of casual gamers who bought a DS did not return for 3DS so another huge decline because of mobile gaming impact is not likely to happen again.

Basically that means that pretty much everybody who bought a 3DS did so for the big games it recieved like Pokemon, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Animal Crossing, 2D/3D Mario, Zelda, Monster Hunter, Yokai Watch, Dragon Quest, etc.

Based on this, we should be able to conclude that as long as Switch recieves mainline entries in most of the big 3DS franchises than a very large percentage of the userbase should return.

As for your question about a PS/XB handheld to steal the market from Nintendo, you are making up what if scenarios that we know are not going to happen so its pointless to even use that as an argument.

Those what if scenario's hold merit to some degree because they aren't much different than your "what if NiN only sells Switch from now on and stops selling dedicated mobile handhelds" statement. You don't know that is going to happen more than anybody else. NiN has always innovated its consoles. but also sold handhelds, so why stop now just because Switch can be used as both? Its not the best console/handheld it could be, because of the hybrid design. It has its benefits but also its downsides.

Nintendo even said years ago, that NX could be just one device, and if that single device sold well enough then they could focus on just that sole device going forward, but If it wasn't enough, then they would have to make multiple devices. Until we know how well Switch is selling over a period of time, especially against PS and XB hardware this upcoming holiday season, no one can be sure whether Switch will end up being a lone wolf or not.

There are people who think Switch is too expensive or just too big for a handheld only. Your telling me if PS made a new handheld, that was able to fit that smaller/cheaper space, and had enough games, that consumers wouldn't purchase it instead? NiN's games hold value and are a draw for some customers, but they aren't everything. It's like me buying my PS4. I was on the fence on whether to buy the PS4 or XB1, and the reason that put me over the edge was simply that all my friends bought PS4's. While I miss some of the XB1 exclusives, I also enjoy some of the PS4 exclusives, but they weren't the deciding factor. Many people buy their system for many different reasons. Being so sure about your user base returning just because "you're the best", is what leads to situations like the 360 giving PS3 a run for its money, and PS4 absolutely walking all over XB1.