It's not so much about Nintendo being able to afford to make another console. They could obviously.
The question is if Switch fails, then basically the consumer has told Nintendo they don't want home consoles from them (Wii U) and they don't even want portables from them either.
The market will basically consolidate entirely under the Sony or MS camps. Also Nintendo's internal business structure would step in. This isn't a hobbyist club where designers get to do whatever they want. Most likely if Switch fails, a lot Nintendo's suits will start to push for a hardware-less approach on mobile devices where maybe you can just buy "Joy-Con" like snap ons for your smartphone or smart tablet and play Nintendo games that way (no need for a seperate piece of hardware).
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