Salnax on 19 October 2016
A few thoughts:
- For Trump, the most important states are Florida and Ohio. Even if Clinton has a critical failure or Trump has a critical success in the next few weeks, Clinton has a larger share of likely electoral votes. Especially since Virginia is increasingly Democratic in presidential elections. Without Florida, Trump only has one of the larger states' allotment of votes (Texas) vs Clinton's existing four (California, Illinois, New York, and Pennsylvania). Ohio is only slightly less important, but Florida is Trump's essential state right now.
- Clinton's lead over Trump was smaller until the first two debates. If Trump does well with the third debate, that could make a major difference.
- Clinton seems to be a less active campaigner than Trump, at least in terms of being on the ground and giving speeches to large crowds. That can cause trouble for her.
- I'm not sure how much any kind of scandal will affect either candidate. Both are fairly good at shrugging those off.
Love and tolerate.
