| SpokenTruth said: Guess I'll keep posting it until everybody understands. Nintendo revenue last fiscal year (ended March 31st, 216) = ~$4.9 billion USD. Pokemon Go daily revenue estimate = $1.6 million. x 365 days = $584 million (if usage never drops). Nintendo will get ~10% (directly) + ~9% (Pokemon Company) = 19% of $584 million = ~$111 million. ~$4.9 billion > ~$111 million. In other words, it would take 44 mobile hits equivalent to Pokemon Go every single year to replace their current business model. |
Pokemon Go is just at the beginning of its tail cycle though, it's not even released in many major markets worldwide, also the take home revenue on mobile once the game is developed is almost pure profit whereas physical goods like game hardware have a much, much lower profit margin while they have high revenue.
Pokemon Go I think the potential to get to Candy Crush sized numbers of 500 million (half a billion!) installs. Maybe even less at 350-400 million would still be enormous.
Also Nintendo will get a bigger cut of future titles as for sure now they know to self-publish all their mobile games (they don't need Niantic to do that) and their own IP like Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem and (gulp) perhaps Mario Kart ... they fully own all those IP.
Revenue is not what drives business models anyway .... profit does. 5 million Wii Us sold at $300 a pop is over $150 billion in revenue, but only likely $50-$100 million in profit.
