Will the NX outsell the WiiU?

[Jumpin]

Soundwave said:

Jumpin said:

Nintendo went from 20 to 100 million between GameCube and Wii, so it is possible to see jumps that high, possibly higher. A 5X jump to NX would mean about 70 million. It'll be interesting if NX can beat the Cube to Wii improvement.

Strong software is key. Wii had: Zelda, Wii Sports, Super Mario Galaxy, and Metroid Prime 3 in its year 1, and that was alongside a bunch of other games. Immediately Wii's year 1 was Nintendo's strongest year of releases ever. Nintendo needs a  repeat of Wii year 1 for NX.

That isn't really what drove Wii sales though. 

GameCube arguably had an equal/better 1st year of Nintendo franchise software vs. the Wii (not counting the Wii casual fare):

Super Smash Bros. Melee, Super Mario Sunshine, Metroid Prime, Luigi's Mansion, Pikmin, Animal Crossing, Star Fox Adventures, Eternal Darkness, Wave Race: Blue Storm, NBA Courtside 2002

vs.

Super Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime 3, Zelda: TP (GCN port), Super Paper Mario, Wario Ware: Smooth Moves, Fire Emblem, Excite Truck, Mario Party, Mario Strikers, Battallion Wars Wii

It's a wash at best, yet Wii had much higher sales.

I think NX must have some really appreciable new element about it. It doesn't have to be some casual chasing gimmick but it needs to be something that clearly differeniates it next to a PS4/XB1/Wii U. But unlike the Wii, they can't gimp the chipset, it needs to be powerful otherwise developers will not support it, it should be at minimum equal to the PS4 and upgradable perhaps to PS4.5 levels.

There's not much argument at all when you look at the critical and commercial statistics. Wii is clearly the stronger lineup.

Want to see how the gaming press and other industry people rushed to play the Wii software at E3 2006? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHweWpS_0BU and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGlvLQzvJNA

1. Super Mario Galaxy is the most critically acclaimed videogame in the industry's history: http://www.gamerankings.com/browse.html - Super Mario Sunshine, on the otherhand, is the most weakly received 3D Mario, scoring even lower than Super Mario 3D World, and below many of the 2D Mario games, and even ports of 2D Mario games. In addition, Super Mario Galaxy greatly outsold Mario Sunshine.
2. Zelda Twilight Princess, while technically a port, it was not sold as one. Its original release was on Wii (not Gamecube) and was primarily pushed as a Wii title, given that the Gamecube one came out after and had a much more limited release. If you want to hold the fact that Twilight Princess began development on Gamecube and is therefore a port, you also have to point to the fact that Eternal Darkness, Starfox Adventures, and Animal Crossing are N64 ports, and combined they were less important than Twilight Princess on Wii.
3. Wii Sports was an incredibly fresh concept, and people were really excited to play it. There was nothing on the Gamecube that compared. Undeniably. this was Nintendo's biggest pack-in game outside of Super Mario Bros & Duck Hunt.
4. Smash Bros Melee, ended up being the biggest game on the Gamecube; but it lacked the critical and commercial success of Super Smash Brothers Brawl released on Wii at the beginning of Year 2. http://www.gamerankings.com/browse.html?search=Super+Smash&numrev=3&site= - Brawl remains the most all around successful title in the history of the franchise.
5. Animal Crossing was an interesting concept that wasn't fully realized until it moved to handheld where it was received better critically, and sold several times more units. In terms of fresh and interesting titles, this would be the closest to comparing to Wii Sports. It was an early experiment in casual gaming, games where a player logs in for a short period of time to do some tasks, and then logs out to return to play the next day.
6. Virtual Console is something people tend to forget when pointing out to what the Wii had available in the first year. Nintendo began relaunching many of its most successful titles ever it was popular enough that every week on facebook people would be posting about which new games Nintendo had brought to the virtual console. There was nothing in Gamecube's library that really compared, except maybe Animal Crossing, but that list is highly limited and not representative of games Nintendo is known for.

Wii had a much stronger line-up among both fans and critics. Gamecube is one of those consoles where there is a base of people who seem to remember the games being a lot better than they actually were. People forget the long droughts that the console had, that the Gamecube lineup was weak and uninteresting compared to its counterparts. Gamecube lacked the big exclamation points that Wii had available. Twilight Princess and Super Mario Galaxy alone were stronger than all of Gamecube's year 1 titles, and that is before you apply Wii Sports, and 15 other ganes published by Nintendo in the first year.