JWeinCom said:
Ummmmmm... no... I mean, I just posted numbers showing you the DS declining... and you're going to tell me they didn't O_o..? DS sales dropped by 25% in 2010 (one year before 3DS) and then dropped 57% the year 3DS was released. Wii sales dropped 33% in 2011, and then dropped 56% the year the Wii U was released. These sales patterns are virtually identical. There was no special problem the Wii ran into, however much you'd like to repeat that there was. I've also showed you that virtually every home console follows the same sales trajectory (the PS2 being the only possible exception). When the sales patterns are the same, you can't justify a special explanation for Wii sales. I don't know what you mean by there "were still a ton of potential customers for the Wii". By 2010, Nintendo's market was 80 million people smaller than it was when it started. Basic common sense dictates that sales should slow down. Between the PS3, XBox 360, and the Wii, there were about 180 million home consoles sold, which was about the size of the home console market the last generation. I can't fathom why you would expect Wii sales to continue climbing or even maintain their current levels. When the Wii sales began to drop, there was not a corresponding rise in PS3 and XBox 360 sales, so wrong again. 3DS and Vita have a saturation problem. Again, this is just basic economics and logic. If you sell 20 million units, there are 20 million less customers. Gamers are not an infinite resourse. That's why the 3DS outsold Vita 3:1 in Japan in 2014, and 2:1 in 2015. Globally, the gap between the two shrunk. Because the 3DS has sold to much more of its potential market than the the Vita. The 3DS is hit harder by market saturation because it sold more. Just like the Wii was hit harder because it had sold more than its rivals. Sony's PS2 success in its later years was driven heavily by emerging markets. This is something Sony themselves have said "http://www.gamespot.com/forums/system-wars-314159282/sony-presents-impressive-sales-and-growth-figures-25868916/"
Your only argument for people getting bored of the Wii and moving to the 360 and PS3 seems to be "well I say so". And what you say is completely worthless, as is what I say. The only way what you say will mean anything is if it agrees with the data we have. What you're saying completely goes against the data. |
Actually I'm pretty sure XBox 360 sales rose a lot in 2010 with Kinect being a big hit initially for them, as I recall the 360 started outselling the Wii regularily as the no.1 console in NPD after Kinect, whereas it rarely/never did before (and if it did it was largely becasue the Wii was supply restrained in the early half of its life cycle).
What I basically think happened is that Move + Kinect made motion gaming nothing special anymore because every system now had it, and all three started milking it like crazy, and eventually people just tired of the whole waggle + mini-game mechanic and moved on to smartphone/tablet gaming.
An analog stick and rumble pak is interesting and different ... until everyone has an analog controller with rumble in it. That's the risk you run with betting the farm on a controller, even if it is successful, it's very likely easy to copy. It's actually a wonder in hindsight that MS/Sony took so long to do it.
