The main obstacle for a Zelda u release in mid-2016 is the Holiday lineup. Nintendo seems to have decided that they need at least one huge game per holiday season for their consoles, especially since 2008. Zelda served that role in 2011, so I feel that Nintendo would only feel comfortable releasing Zelda U earlier if they had at least one game of comparable magnitude.
If I had to guess what would constitute a Zelda-level release that could likely be possible by late 2016, there aren't a lot of possibilities. There could be a 3D Super Mario based on an existing concept, either 3D World 2 or Galaxy 3. Retro could release something big, but neither their Metroid Prime or Donkey Kong games have always been THAT big (See Prime 2 and Tropical Freeze). They could have a group of games that don't quite make the cut, like some combination of Mario Party 11, Paper Mario 5, and a Kirby platformer within a short period. Otherwise, I don't see it.
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