There may be more games next year for X1, but aside from Gears their hardware boosting capabilities are limited. Quantum Break and Crackdown 3 may be decent. Everything else, no. How often do new exclusive IPs that aren't shooters do anything significant on Xbox? Even shooting games that are a bit different, like Sunset Overdrive, struggle. Scalebound and Recore are going to bomb commercially and won't move hardware, Sea of Thieves may do a bit better but I still can't see it moving systems in any significant way. This is definitely X1's year to move serious hardware through exclusives, not next year.
And I think they will, and will enjoy comfortable victories over Sony in the last three months of the year, even if Sony cut the price by $50 and bundle the crap out of MGSV, CoD, Destiny, Battlefront