NX will be a flop if release in 2016

[potato_hamster]

hansrob00 said:

potato_hamster said:

Third party developers can get all the money they need from other consoles without the greif of having to develop the game for multiple specifications. You can't possibly how much you're underplaying the added time and expense of developing for multiple specifications. It's practically the same thing as developing a multiplatform game, except it's just one platform. It would go over like a Lead Zeppelin.

Like seriously guys? You think one of the consoles is going to be a tablet? Are you thinking Wii U gamepad or iPad type of tablet, because if its the later, you could have the develop and test touch controls just for that version. You think one verison is going to be some super high specd beast that will be able to duke it out spec wise with any other console? Awesome! Good luck essentially making an HD remake WHILE you're developing the core game. Its absolutely ridiculous what you're suggesting. It is never going to happen.

Maybe, *maybe* there is a handheld and a home consoles that accepts the same game cartridges/disks. Maybe. But they would be remarkably similar in the sense that the NX console controller would more or less have to have the exact same number of buttons and layout of the NX handheld. The specifications would have to be practically identical, the only difference being that the home console outputs the game to the TV at HD and the handheld outputs it to a screen size resolution. If that is pretty much the only difference between the two, maybe it's possible. Maybe. But you would still be literally doubling most of the development costs.

Then either your handheld is going to cost and arm and a leg, or your home console is going to be cheap as dirt. There will be no tablet version. There will be no "hardcore, higher spec'd" version. That absolutely, 100% will not happen. If they do do this, and the graphical fidelity isn't at least as good as the PS4 and X1 are at the time, and the developer tools aren't improved dramatically, it will be the biggest Nintendo failure yet.

This is such an ambitious idea, and look at Nintendo's track record. Why on earth do you guys think Nintendo can actually pull this off well? Their network play finally rivals that of of Xbox Live! ...for the original xbox. Their developer tools are worst than a joke, because no one is laughing when they have to use them. This would require developing very close partnerships with your third parties, something Nitendo, historically has been pretty terrible at maintaining if they can establish one in the first place. Maybe it can be done, maybe such a concept could be pulled off successfully, but not by Nintendo.

Isn't easier than ever to port something over to a console, like that was the big thing about the ps4 because it was very developer friendly, and the ps4 is very similar to the xbox1, which at the end of the day is even closer to pc architecture...I don't know, I remember reading that somewhere in numerous places.

As for the money part, the video game industry particularly the so called triple AAA developers are in the midst of a transition with a lot of them going under , just not making money, or getting out altogether. And I reiterate my point, competition is fierce. As long as Nintendo's new console show healthy sales, which show good prospects of decent sales for the 3rd party, more will appear. However they have to get the launch right and even 6 months after show healthy sales, but I suppose we will see.

Yes it is easier than ever to port a Playstation game to a Microsoft game or vice versa. 100% absolutely is. It still isn't trivial. It was incredibly difficult before and now it's slightly less difficult. It helps that Sony and Microsoft have made competent developer tools. However, the biggest factor in porting games isn't how "easy" the work is.  It's how time consuming it is. It's how many man hours your need to do that, it's how many people you need working on a game at one time to accomplish that. Sure, Engine work is a bit easier but that's a relatively small factor in the "ease" of actually developing a console video game in terms of time, money, and other resources needed to accomplish that feat. Adding a new platform to a game is an incredible amount of extra work.

Everyone seems to be predicting the collapse of AAA publishers. But it really isn't going to happen. The big players will get safer, sure, the smaller studios will go under, years and years of bad decisions can lead to a bigger player going under, but you seem to be looking back on the industry with rose colored glasses. Hundreds of studios have been going bust every year for decades now. Decades. The reason why it seems like more are going under now than ever before is because there are more game studios than ever before. The industry is going and continues to grow. Sure there are more people that want a piece of the pie, but the pie is bigger as well. AAA Third party publishers aren't going anywhere.

But let's assume it did. What happens when we hit a "video game recession"? Video game publishers get much more conservative with their dollars. They take on less projects, take on less risk, and contract teams. They cut the fat. They can just keep on making games for the PS4 and X1. They have already invested in those systems. They have the developer kits, they have the knowledge base from past titles. They have engines they've been optmizing for years. What makes you think they're going to turn and take on publishing a Nintendo game when the development costs for that unified platform are 30% higher pretty much across the board than it is for any other platform? Why would they do that? Why on earth would they turn around, and add a Nintendo platform that introduces new unknowns, more than likely horrendous developer tools, and requires a significantly higher investment to develop fora platform that historically has been a barren wasteland when it comes to third party sales? Do you realize how huge of a risky move that is? Practically every third party that has taken a big gamble on a Nintendo home console in the past decade has failed and failed miserably. Why take the chance? Developers would be out of their minds to touch that. I guarantee it would take at least 18 months of solid third party sales before the major players start taking it seriously, and that're more than enough time for the NX to end up with Wii-U like sales numbers.