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Soundwave on 11 June 2015
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zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:
The "their handhelds are doing just fine" schtick is getting a little tired.

Their handhelds are going in the wrong direction ... the 3DS got a couple of OK years in before smartphone competetion has slapped them around.

The last two years are Nintendo's lowest handheld shipments in 17 and 18 year years.

They're likely to suffer continued losses to their handheld line if they continue the "we'll just keep doing the same thing with no changes at all" approach.

The 3DS might limp its way to 70 million in six years, but the successor if they don't make any meaningful changes is likely look at considerably less than that.

In particular in the US, the bottom has fallen off their handheld market. While the 3DS has hit 15 million here, the GBA sold 38 million, the DS 54 million, and the Game Boy over 40 million.

3DS is probably going to fizzle out in the US at 22-25 million LTD ... that is a monstrous drop off from previous Nintendo handheld generations. Americans especially are losing interest in Nintendo handhelds.


Gameboy is a 2 generation device so that 40+ million number is a bit misleading. Americas (North/Central/South) shipments were 14.81 million thru March 1994 (same time frame as 3DS).


Which would be great for Nintendo. If they had a console that was selling as well as the NES or Super NES were from 1989-1994. Oh ... wait ... yeah.  They don't. 

Modern Nintendo can't have portable sales dipping this low on a per year basis, this is why they are scrambling to expand into other things like Quality of Life, smartphone apps, movie/merchandise licensing, because they are scared of what's happening to their traditional HH/console model. 

If 3DS is carrying the company it MUST be selling more than 10 million shipments a year. Really it needs to be at 15 million every year given how badly Nintendo has fallen in the console realm, but 15 million/year is asking for way too much from the 3DS. 

The other problem is the next handheld is going to actually have it harder than the 3DS did. When the 3DS launched, smartphone apps were still in their infancy and the iPad was jut taking its baby steps. Things like $150 tablets were unheard of. Today TV ads for smartphone games are running non-stop, cheap tablets are everywhere, and kids have gotten accustomed to really love smartphone games.

It's going to be harder for Nintendo from now on, not easier. 3DS had at least the benefit of being able to fend off the app market for a little while because it was still relatively unestablished. Today that isn't the case at all.