-The measurements by the two refs varied by 0.3-0.45psi
-The measurements for the Colts balls showed measurements up to 0.4psi below the allowed limit
-Brady prefers gameballs on the lower end of the spectrum
-Luck's preference is unknown (to my knowledge)
Therefore, Luck's gameballs could have started as high as 13.95psi (due to the variability in measuring) and fallen to as low as 12.15psi (only four balls were measured) (a 1.8 difference). The Pats could have started with gameballs as low as 12.1psi (due to the variability in measuring) and the final recordings placed the gameballs at 10.5psi, a 1.6psi difference.
We just don't have enough information (the starting points of the balls) to know what actually happened, and this lack of reliable information makes it ridiculous to give out such a harsh penalty.
Additionally, it is my opinion (and seemingly the opinion of numerous past and present quarterbacks) that modifying gameballs in some way is inconsequential and it seems to be fairly common. Strange that the NFL suddenly started caring about something so minor so quickly.
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