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RolStoppable said:
Barozi said:

Don't forget that this is shipped so it includes physical copies that haven't even been sold yet. Take that out of the equation and the physical ratio goes up to 90%-ish.

Also we know that Tropical Freeze hasn't reached a million yet, because Nintendo didn't even mention it so far.

You mean unsold physical copies make the ratio of physical sales go down.

That would be right, but Conina is using VGC numbers (retail sales only) and subtracts them from the Nintendo numbers (digital sales, retail sales and retail shipments).
So his "retail only" figure is indeed just that what he got from VGC, but the rest is digital + retail shipments instead of just digital. Thus taking retail shipments out of that equation makes the digital side go down.

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One example using unsold shipments of 100k copies.

"Super Mario 3D World: 2.17m digital+retail, ~1.8m retail only = ~83% retail"

retail + digital + shipment: 2.17m
retail = 82.95%
digital + shipments = 17.05%

now eliminating the shipments

retail + digital: 2.07m
retail = 86.96%
digital = 13.04%