If anybody were to bring Pokemon to the Wii U, I doubt it would be GameFreak. They seem to play it safe with platforms more than anything (hence why B2/W2 was on DS, not 3DS) and go with the big userbase instead of the untapped potential.
I think an NFC Pokemon game for Wii U is decently likely, but it wont be made by GF
I also doubt a new SM3DL game would be coming at all...more than likely EAD is doing something different with Mario. They usually don't like staying on the same thing for too long and I feel like there are not many more places to take the series.
New Mario is possible (though I doubt it) but I don't think it will be in the 3DL series.
Essentially, I think your predictions (or hopes?) are fairly realistic. Theres a few things (F-Zero, MM3D) that are one option in a longer list of options that I'm sure Nintendo has chosen a few titles from so we will see what they have chosen at E3...
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