I'm thinking 600,000 copies Week 1, 4.1 million copies total in 2014, and a lifetime of 11.4 million, making it the Wii U's best-selling retail game and one of the few 10+ million seller exclusives of the console generation.
That would be well short of MKWii, but would still reflect the series's major growth since Double Dash (which sold under 7 million lifetime).
A total of 11.4 million would also require the Wii U's final sales to only be 30 or 35 million, roughly N64 numbers, something that I still believe can happen.