Like I have said in other threads regarding it, its gonna completely depend on support. It needs the games that utilize it well, that appeal to the mass market.
Even then though, to appeal to the mass market it needs to have that mass market price, which aint gonna happen on top of the steep cost of a console as things are right now. Its just too soon. When it comes, its gonna be a PS Move to the Dualshock 3. Its gonna be a "me too!" device that will be supported by a few first person titles with nothing unique to sell it.
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