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NPD have the Xbox One at ~1.95 Million as of the end of Jan.

Considering that VGC estimations put the Xbox One at ~2.12 Million, that gives us ~170k left over, which is within a 10% range of accuracy.

You could argue its overtracked, but I wouldnt say significantly. Within 10% is good for short term figures.

That said though, January is looking to be skewing that figure a whole lot and an adjustment down the road is likely.