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Soundwave on 12 February 2014
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MTZehvor said:
VitroBahllee said:

I was reading this over at GoNintendo, and I had to laugh at the comments. All but one person thinks it will sell way more than that. The lone calm voice pointed out 'I dunno... to hit 3 million, it would have to sell 250k a month, something it to date has not done.'

Other people are saying 'I bet it'll sell SEVEN million.'

Now, I own a Wii U, and have since launch. But I seriously doubt it will sell 250k a month. I think there's a chance that in the month Mario Kart is released (May) and whenever Smash launches, there will be sales spikes. But I do not think they will be prolonged. I think more people will get Smash on 3DS than Wii U (duh) and I think it will really cut into the sales people are expecting to see.

Nintendo has put out Wii Sports sequels, Wii Fit iterations, 2D Mario, Zelda remaster, 3D Mario, and had no gigantic bump. All it has left are Kart, Smash, and full, new Zelda in its batch of system sellers. I expect some results from the launch of these, but not many.

It's selling close to 50K a week now, so that's a little over 200K a month at its current pace. If it sells that way for 11 months, that'd put it at 2.2 million, and then there's the assured sales boost from the holiday, which will probably be more than 200K a week (at least, if this year's holiday sales are anything to go by).

And none of this takes into account boosts from DKC, Mario Kart, or Smash. I do take some issue with the "no significant boost" claim, the Wii U's weekly sales were three times higher the week Pikmin 3 released in the US than they were the week before (I'd have to go check for 3D World). It's not a major boost, but it is enough of one to give the Wii U a couple of 250 K a month sales.

And both Kart and Smash are Nintendo's biggest sellers. 3 Million seems VERY conservative to me.

Mario Kart is but Smash Bros? Whoa, whoa, whoa. Smash wasn't even one of the top 5 Wii sellers. 

Smash on Wii sold about the same as Mario Galaxy (slightly less actually I think). 

GameCube is the only place where Smash outsold Mario 3D, and I think that's in large part due to Mario Sunshine being a Mario game that a lot of people didn't ask for.