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Carl on 06 January 2014
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ioi said:

My take

  • 3DS - very similar to Q1 2013.
  • PS3 and 360 will be down about 50% YOY.
  • Wii, PSP, DS will be down a lot (70%+).
  • Wii U should beat last Jan and Feb and will start to pick up once Donkey Kong, Mario Kart etc start to hit. A $50 price drop could easily double hardware sales as well which may come around April / May.
  • Xbox One will be pretty steady, probably similar to 360 year 1 / 2. Will pick up in March with Titanfall but drop back afterwards.
  • PS4 will be erratic depending on stock until end of Feb when demand should finally be met and it will level off to PS3-like levels from the last couple of years.

I actually expect Wii U to put up a strong showing in April - June, and PS4 / XOne may slow a fair bit depending on new software and when the likes of Watch Dogs, Destiny etc arrive.

Xbox One should take the lead over PS4 in the US around March time and should start to pull out a decent lead but PS4 will dominate in Europe outside of the UK where things will be neck and neck but like I say Wii U shouldn't be too far behind with some strong software and some kind of aggressive pricing / bundling. Look back to the launches of every other piece of hardware in history - year 1 is always a hard one, software is slow to come after the initial launch period and things generally slow right down once the early adoptors are all on board - this is likely what will happen with XOne and PS4 until the holidays arrive. It will take price cuts and / or some big exclusive games to start to bring in the casual crowd and that normally takes 18 months or so after launch.

These are just off the top of my head with very little deep thought, I may have missed some key factors and of course a lot can change in the next few months. It should be a very interesting year.


Its gonna be fun watching things unfold.

Grats on the Xbox One tracking btw. Spot on.