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Baer said:
1. The PS4/X1 cycle will last most likely (6-) 7 years.
2. Nintendo already talked about making shorter console cycles, but 3 years is too short. They should make it 5 years, which is most likely the point where the developers took the best out of the console.
3. It all depends on the hardware sales of the WiiU though. Is the WiiU the flop through out its lifetime, then it is likely to see a new console pretty early. We might see a new CEO quite soon as well, so depending on the person, this could be influenced as well-

But still: 3 years lifetime is too low. Nintendo would hurt their loyal fanbase a lot, that's why they have to go for 4-5 years even in worst case scenarios.

 

It's the same life span the Game Boy Advance got, that didn't hurt Nintendo with the DS. Try not to think of this as a console that "replaces" the Wii U. Wii U would still be there and still be getting the same games it would otherwise, Nintendo would simply have a different option to target people who don't want a Wii U because it's not giving them the Western third party content they want and doesn't measure up to the PS4/XB1. 

Just dropping support for the Wii U entirely would be unneccessary it could still be supported through 2016 or 2017.