Based on the high sales of 3D Land (over 8.5 million) and the pretty good sales of even Sunshine (over 6 million), I'd have to guess 5 million would be the worst case scenario.
By "worst-case scenario," I mean that the Wii U would have to not only be this gen's Dreamcast, but its Saturn, selling worse than even the GameCube. Even then, 3D World will sell 5 million.
It's a Super Mario game. Those sell rather well.
Love and tolerate.