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Depends on whether- I mean how soon Capcom makes a superior version of the game, and for what platforms. That said, if Monster Hunter 4 remains a 3DS exclusive for at least a year, with no announcements of any other platform release, I can't realistically imagine it selling less than 3 million within the year. And if the 3DS lasts for another 5 years, and 400,000 copies are sold per year, including the inevitable budget rerelease...

It can reach 5 million. It won't look that way at first, and digital distrubution might take a few hundred thousand copy bite out of the total. But including digital copies, I can see an eventual 5 million in Japan alone. Especially since MH games don't have terrible legs even on the PSP.