| RolStoppable said: The economic conditions have changed drastically, so anytime you extrapolate from previous generations to the eighth one without taking the current world economy into account, you will end up being horribly wrong. You have seen the Vita which was supposed to do well. It was priced similarly to the PSP, but launched with a much better lineup. About 1.5 years back (right around the Vita's launch in America and Europe) we had a discussion where you were insisting that all the PSV needed was a reasonable amount of games, because everything else was right. That was in response to my claims that the handheld would struggle badly. I then told you that the PSV will definitely need a price cut, because by May 2012 it will have fallen below 100k units in weekly worldwide sales. What happened is that the PSV got there in April, a month before my estimate. Now you can come up with any excuses you like (smartphones etc.), but there is always Japan where the PSP was popular throughout its entire life. The PSV already got its price cut to 20,000 yen and last week it didn't even get past the 20k mark on the back of a new software release that pushed 80k units. The PSP didn't break a sweat to have a baseline of 30k units. The PSV goes for the same audience as the PSP, but that audience isn't really getting on board just yet. One deciding factor in this is that the PSP was still supplied with plenty of games well into the eighth generation and that is exactly what we can expect for the PS3 and 360 as well. Why go for an expensive upgrade to play the same exact games (or rather fewer games, because not all third parties will be present on the new consoles immediately)? The intial PS4 and X1 exclusives don't scream "killer app", so there will be a widespread lack of incentives for consumers to buy into the eighth generation at first, resulting in disappointing sales for next gen hardware. As for price specifically, $500 was insane in 2006, so it's even more bonkers in 2013. The X1 is destined to struggle based on price alone. $400 for the PS4 is also a hefty amount, but right now many are under the illusion that it is a great price for two reasons: The PS3 was $600 and the X1 is $500. But just because there is something worse doesn't make something else good. And when you hear news like "40% of the youth in Spain is unemployed" (the age demographic that the PS4 is supposed to sell to intially), then even traditional strongholds of Sony won't help them much. It is possible that a $400 PS4 will do worse than the $600 PS3 because of the current economic conditions. Lastly, to put some numbers out there, I say that both the X1 and PS4 will go below 100k units in weekly worldwide sales in 2014. For the X1 I am more daring and say that it will go below 50k, because the system has too much going against it, based on the currently available information. Now tell me at which point you would consider sales to be terrible. |
I really dont think price would be a problem for Wii U if support was on the console. Its hard to justify paying $300/$350 for a console with no worthwhile games releasing for it, but when games ARE being released and a good library is there, the machine can do quite well, as proven by the PS3 through to 2009 before it dropped below $300 with the Slim. It was still pushing 100k-150k per Week because support was still there, even though the support itself was nothing to shout and scream about.
On the point of Japan, we can see just how poorly handhelds are doing there not by looking at PSV to PSP, but by looking at 3DS to DS. The 3DS has been on the market now for what, 30 Months? Its selling ~55k per Week in Japan with far, far weaker competition than the DS had. The DS was selling well over 100,000 units per Week in Japan ~30 Months after release, while the PSP was selling ~20-30k per Week. The evidence is there that the handheld market has shrunk, not only in America and Europe, but in Japan also. We know this is due to smartphones (Along with a lack of games for PSV/early 3DS and high prices for both). The PS4, Wii U and Xbox One dont have this smartphone competition in the home.
In short, I dont think its right to compare handhelds to homeconsoles. Handhelds have extra competition, and 3DS/PSV launched at extremely high pricepoints for handheld consoles. PS4, U and One dont have the extra competition and 2 of them are priced at points we have come to expect from this industry over the last generation (aside from Wii, that is).
The games releasing on PSP that kept sales chugging along, were PSP games. Many of them simply werent on the Vita. This is where they differ on that point, because the majority of games releasing after PS4/One release are cross-gen games. Call of Duty. FIFA. Battlefield. Watch_Dogs. Etc. As for paying extra to play those same games, I think people will and I think it shows in preorders for certain games too. Watch_Dogs is a good example, where the PS4 version of the game is out-preordering the current gen versions. Certain games on current gen are also taking a hit, preorder-wise, due to next-gen versions being available. Battlefield and Call of Duty for example are down on previous releases on the 360 and PS3 by quite a bit. As more next-gen consoles are sold, this will happen more and more, especially when people start to see the differences between generations.
All depends on the support. If these big games are still hitting PS4/One, then people will continue to buy at least one of the consoles.
I wouldnt be surprised to see them drop below the 100k mark in the first Year, as they will also be impacted by 360/PS3 pricecuts at somepoint, probably in the Summer droughts. I can easily see the One hovering around 50k and the PS4 hovering around 100k during certain Weeks, but at the same time I can see them selling 70/80k and 120/130k per Week too, respecively. If were talking about new platforms then Id say anything below 60k per Week is terrible Worldwide and a cause for concern. 60k-100k is bad. 100k-150k is average. 150k-200k is good. 200k+ is great.
I simply dont think we will see either console hit Wii U lows, though Im not predicting anything solid until were closer to launch. Still 2 big game shows to see.
