A price cut would help it reach the par set by the 3DS, but it would have to happen over the next couple of months. Animal Crossing and then Pokemon will probably each increases units moved by a couple thousand a week, in addition to the bevy of smaller titles coming. For the Vita to outsell the 3DS in America alone, some sort of price cut and a major release, probably an exclusive, are necessary.
The problem is, I don't know what that major release will be. Tearaway and Killzone are the most obvious candidates, but are likely coming out late this year. By that time, the 3DS will definitely already have Animal Crossing boosting it as well as maybe Pokemon. And then, of course, the 3DS could end up with more than 2 games of note this year. What if the rumored 3DS Zelda comes out? Mario & Luigi 4 is the sequel to an RPG that sold millions, might it be a big seller? What if Lego City becomes a hit?
And to top it off, the 3DS will likely respond to any Vita strong points with a bundle or two. $200 bundles including a game system, a physical or digital copy of a game, and an SD card are a match to $200 handhelds that come with no game or card, regardless of functionality.
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