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Even if the ratio is 10 achievment points to 1 microsoft point, that's not going to be too bad for a more prolific gamer. I would only get 800microsoft points, but I have a few friends who use gamefly, who would get over 5000 microsoft points which is over $60 worth if I remember correctly.

I have a feeling though that microsoft will limit what you can buy with achievment points. Either you won't be able to buy new/popular arcade games and dlc, or you will only be able to buy useless asthetics like avatar items. Otherwise they will have serious issues with people abusing the system considering how cheap services like gamefly are, how easy it is to borrow a bunch of your friends' games, and how easy achievments are in many games.