Without guessing numbers I do want to say that because of the very large and devoted Nintendo fanbase the Wii U will definitely have a stellar launch. But I don't think all those grandparents and soccer moms are going to replace their Wii's with Wii U's. They were all the type of people that bought a Wii because of the gimmicks and they don't need anything else. They will probably be happy with the Wii's they have for the rest of their lives. That's why I think it's apparent that Nintendo is trying to charm back the core/hardcore gamers. I'm not sure if it's going to work because the Wii U is looking a lot like the next Dreamcast.
The Dreamcast was ahead of it's time and had great games. But because it hit the market early it's competitors could enter the market with more powerful machines. The Dreamcast was also all about really good first party games. Sure it had plenty of ports and 3rd party exclusives, but Sony and Microsoft hit the market with incredible 3rd party support. People skipped the Dreamcast because they were waiting for the PS2, Gamecube and Xbox. All for different reasons. People may do the same with the Wii U.
Like Sega fans, Nintendo fans go nuts for their next machine. They will wait in line and buy Wii U's in record numbers just like Sega fans did with the Dreamcast. But I'm afraid the larger portion of the consumer base will continue to play their Xbox 360s and PS3s while they wait for Xbox 720 and PS4.
