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Since its so ahead of Mass Effect 2, I think it will be more interesting to compare it to skyrim. Currently it is tracking 132,284k ahead of skyrim in the United States.
At first it might seem it is very overtracked. Skyrim was the sequel to a very old game that had very good legs for an hd console and sold much better than Mass Effect 1/2. So it made sense to see huge growth. Mass Effect 3 is coming out only 2 years after Mass Effect 2, which itself didn't sell much better than the original.
But remember, these preorders are only for the first week sales in the United States, so these numbers shouldn't be looked at as evidence that mass effect 3 might outsell skyrim worldwide, or even in the United States. Mass Effect is a much, much smaller franchize in Europe than the Elder Scrolls so it won't even get near Skyrim's Europe sales. Mass Effect is also a much more frontloaded game than elder scrolls. Mass Effect 2 sold 570k first week in the United States and hasn't even managed to triple that number in two years of sale in the United States. Elder Scrolls sold 1.1mil first week and is already pretty close to tripling that number in 4 months. Mass Effect 3 could very well sell 1mil+ first week in the United States and never even approach 3mil lifetime there, while skyrim should easily pass 4mil, despite a similar week 1.
I think a 1mil week one would hint at lifetime sales of around 4mil worldwide, which while a big boost, certainly is possible, especially considering there have been 4 recent games that have had massive growth over their predessesors. Arkham City, Saints Row The Third, Battlefield 3, and Skyrim.
Obviously the game could very well be overtracked, like halo, zelda, and star wars were these holidays. But it could also experience big growth over its predessor. Its not like growth is unprecedented.
