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I think it's going to be a close year. Microsoft will probably pull it off. It will probably go:

360
PS3 (Each in the 9 million area)
Wii (6-to-7 provided by Wii U confusion)
Wii U (@4 million)

I'm guessing Nintendo will try and launch in a "dead" area of about August-to-October, which will give time to ramp up their supply for the holiday rush. (But part of me says I'm being a little conservative considering they managed to move nearly 10 million 3DS's in five months time.)