Well I was bored and cranky waiting for one of my classes to start so I decided to find out! Using the magical tool of division and a bunch of data from Vgchartz this is what "should" be the first week and 1 year total sales.
Skyrim will sell 1.55 mil first week + or - 100k
Uncharted 3 will sell 1.35mil first week + or - 100k (First week sales go to skyrim)
After 1 year both will be around 5mil + or - 500k (1 year total sales will be tied)
For those who care this is how I found these numbers. I explain the numbers in the first table. But the rest of the tables follow the same guidelines.
Fallout New Vegas
| 4 weeks to go preorders | 362385 (68.95% of preorders) |
| last week of preorders | 525556 (81.36% of first week sales) |
| launch week in usa | 645971 (74.71% of WW Sales) |
| launch week total | 864595 (30.86% of 1year sales) |
| 1 year total | 2801446 |
using the same percents
Elder Scrolls V Skyrim
| 4 weeks to go preorder | 698614 |
| PREDICTION LAST week preorder | 1013218 |
| PREDICTED LAUNCH WEEK IN USA | 1245351 |
| PREDICTED WW WEEK 1 | 1666913 |
| PREDICTED 1 YEAR TOTAL | 5401534 |
Shortcoming with this prediction. Oblivion actually outsold fallout 3 in EMEAA so Elder scrolls might be a bigger franchise than Fallout in EMEAA which these percentages don't take account.
Fallout New Vegas had 5 days to sell its first week in America and 2 days in EMEAA. Skyrim will have 2 days to sell in both America and EMEAA.
Japan sales are not going to increase by the same percentage as America and EMEAA.
Games with bigger openings have a much harder time keeping the ratio of their legs to opening week the same as games withlower openings.
With this facts into consideration.
I think skyrim's first week will be 1.55mil which should be very accurate.
It will have a much better week 2 ratio wise than Fallout New Vegas though, since its week one was so few days.
and 1 year 5mil which won't be too accurate as year long sales of a game depend on many factors.
Uncharted 2
| 3 weeks till launch | 107360 (56.84%) |
| last week of preorders | 188882 (45.25%) |
| First week of sales USA | 417463 (49.11%) |
| Firt week of Sales WW | 850023 (22.85%) |
| 1 year total Sales | 3720000 |
Uncharted 3
| 3 weeks till launch | 306407 |
| PREDICTION LAST week preorder | 539069 |
| PREDICTED LAUNCH WEEK IN USA | 1191313 |
| PREDICTED WW WEEK 1 | 2435806 |
| PREDICTED 1 YEAR TOTAL | 10616219 |
Shortcomings with predictions. There is no way Uncharted 3's preorders will be able to increase by the same percent in the last week as uncharted 2. Uncharted 2 only needed 40k weekly preorders.Uncharted 3 would need over 100k weekly preorders.
The preorder to first week ratio is probably going to be a bit lower. People were suprised when Uncharted 2 recieved so much critical acclaim. This time they won't be so its reasonable a bigger percentage will preorder the game.
Uncharted 2 was not a well established franchise It would be more to compare the percent increases of Uncharted 3 with with God of War 3 to get America first week sales and than use the Uncharted 2 ratios to find the first week sales WW and over 1 year.
We get this when we take those percents.
God of War 3
| 3 weeks till launch | 405802 (83.33%) |
| Last week of preorders | 486992 (59.85%) |
| First week in Americas | 813742 |
Uncharted 3 will obviously do better in EMEAA then God of War 3 did, so I'll use the uncharted 2 percentages to find first week WW and 1 year total.
Uncharted 3
| 3 weeks till launch | 306407 |
| Last week of preorders | 367703 |
| First week in Americas | 614374 |
| First Week WW with Uncharted 2 % | 1251017 |
| 1 year total with Uncharted 2 % | 5474910 |
Shortcomings with this prediction is Japan numbers will be way too high since it won't increase by the same percent
Games with bigger openings have a much harder time keeping the ratio of their legs to opening week the same as games with lower openings.
Uncharted 2 only had 2 day to sell in EMEAA and had 5 days to sell in America. Uncharted 3 will have 4 days to sell in EMEAA and 5 days to sell in America for its first week.
Realistaclly its first week should be around 1.35mil which should be very accurate.
Its sales will drop more substantially week 2 as it had a lot of days to sell week one unlike Uncharted 2 in EMEAA.
But its 1 year total should be around 5mil which won't be too accurate as year long sales of a game depend on many factors.
