PS3 and Wii battle for Japan 2011 edition

[trestres]

TheSource said:

I feel like we've had this thread since 2009 and Nintendo always pulls something out to stay ahead of PS3 in Japan. I'm fully aware that PS3 has more third party support than Wii does in Japan but Final Fantasy is really the only item on the PS3 side with huge potential to drive hardware for PS3 besides a price cut. Ail and others are correct that Wii is trending down in January 2011 vs January 2010 but PS3 is too. For Wii Inazuma Eleven, Last Story, and Rhythm Heaven have at least some capacity to drive hardware a little bit. I've been expecting Wii to drop below 10,000 in 2011, barring a price cut for the first time since launch since Wii got to 11,000-12,000 a couple times in 2010 but that doesn't mean it still can't beat PS3 in 2011. This is definitely the first year where I'd say it could realistically happen, but I think Wii still has three paths to beating PS3 in Japan.

This is my ranking from most likely to least likely path:

1) Equal Price drop for Wii and PS3 favors Wii. Look at the data for the previous cuts: The PS3 price cut / Slim introduction led to PS3 sales of 2.22m between August 30 2009 and August 28 2010 - to date this is the PS3 peak 12-month period in Japan. The Wii price cut (without a slim, and less Yen off) led to Wii sales of 2.15m between Sept 27 2009 and Sept 25 2010. Both figures also included major hw spikes from sw - NSMB Wii and FFXIII in Dec 2009. Given a 2011 price cut for Wii and PS3 of 5,000 Yen each I'd wager the Wii price cut would be more effective as a PS3 price cut of 10,000 Yen (40,000 Yen to 30,000 Yen) with the PS3 Slim model equalled the Wii price cut of 5,000 Yen (25,000 Yen to 20,000 Yen) without a Slim model. Wii at 15,000 Yen beats PS3 at 25,000 Yen substantially I'd wager. I figure we get price cuts in April, July, or September for both systems worldwide. NGP / 3DS make the lost revenue easier to swallow for both Sony and Nintendo since both are coming by March 2012.

2) Core sequels to major titles - NSMB Wii or MH3 for Christmas, along with a buttress of Zelda and casual long-legged titles for Obon (Rhythm Heaven, Mario Party 9, etc).

3) Dragon Quest X launches two years after Dragon Quest IX. I figure this isn't coming before Obon 2011 or after Dec 2012  with 3DS and NGP both capable of Wii / PS3 graphics and likely to sell far better in Japan, this is the best window for DQX in Japan I think. No matter how fast these new portable devices sell, the Wii base is going to be bigger through at least late 2012. DQIX pushed the massive DS base by like 85,000 units week one - the lift would probably be bigger for Wii since it has fewer users. If I ran Square-Enix I'd put this in late September for Wii next to the price drop, and then the new FF in Dec for PS3. That gives you a 3m DQ quarter for Sept and a 2m FF / 1m DQ quarter for Dec.

Just posting this to see how it stands. Price cut for the Wii effect not as expected by The Source,