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NJ5 said:

Even with all those reasons there's still a good chance I'm wrong, because jumping from $250 to $350 is quite a lot.

I agree with the rest of your reasoning, but remember that this rationale did nothing to stop the 3DS from selling for $250 (more in Japan).

Personally, I'm hoping for no more than $300, but I expect it to be more unless they're still scared by the 3DS' performance come time to set the price. And that time won't be until three or four months before launch.