GT5 prolgue is probably somewhat close to 5mil with downloads. But there is no way less then 200k copies are out on retailers, especially since very few would buy the game when gt5 came out and prolgue was heavily bundled. I agree with you though
Forza 2/3, Sports Champions, GT5 prologue, and Kinect Adventures should not be included. They only reached or will reach 5mil because of bundles. Other games have been bundled as well obviously, but they would have reached 5mil regardless with the exception of maybe littlebigplanet which is pretty common in bundles and seems like it will barely pass the 5mil mark.
Anyway by december 21st 2012 in my opinion
360 will add gears 3, 2 cods, 1 halo, kinect sports, red dead redemption, GTAV(if it comes out) almost positive.
Maybe will add another assassins creed
Very slight chance to add Elder Scrolls V, random new ip we don't know much about yet.
PS3 will add 2 cods, uncharted 2, red dead redemption, GTAV, FFXIII almost positive
Maybe will add Uncharted 3 (im sure it will pass 5mil but maybe not by the end of 2012), fifa 11, fifa 12
very slight chance to add God of War 3, assassins creed, random new ip we don't know much about yet.
I don't think any other games currently announced for either system have any shot to pass the 5mil mark on just one system without bundles.
