Wii below 60% market share in Japan, where will it finish?

[trestres]

jarrod said:

trestres said:

PS3 is down 34k Yoy
Wii is down 175k YoY

Wii was selling at the 35 - 30k level until the end of March, it will now be lucky to sell above the 10k level for the entire Month of March.

PS3 will also be losing sales YoY, but not as many since it's soon getting some big games. In March alone it's getting Way of the Samurai 4, Dynasty Warriors 6, Yakuza: Of the End, Pro Baseball Spirits 2011 and Dynasty Warriors Troy. As well as a handfull of smaller to medium games. Wii is only getting 2 games that will be lucky to sell 20k LT. I'd say that Wii is in a very tough position as 3rd parties are not developing for it anymore. PS3 still has after this March many big games coming up like a new Metal Gear, 3 Final Fantasies (FFXIII-2, FFvsXIII, FFXIV), a new DMC, Ni No Kuni, new iterations of Powerful Pro Baseball and Winning Eleven, a new Tales of game, a new Tekken game, 2 Street Fighter vs Tekken games, a new Ace Combat, Dark Souls, Ni-Oh, a new Armored Core game, The Last Guardian, etc.

Wii only has DQX, Inazuma Eleven, Zelda, Rythm Heaven and Kirby as big games.

I'm sure both machines will also get new price cuts, bundles and colors.

But looking at the above, since Wii is getting an average of 2 new games/month and the announcements are running out, I can only see the Wii dropping more than 50% YoY. PS3 will probably be down as well, but about 10% or so. This is the Wii's last year in Japan as a meaningful console. There simply aren't anymore games coming out and devs are not announcing games anymore either since late 2009.

I get the feeling NGP is going to decimate PS3 in Japan.  I mean, it basically makes PS3 wholly unnecessary from a Japanese perspective given it does about everything PS3 does but in handheld form, and that feeling will only intensify if it gets much of the same games.  Next year PS3 will likely see Wii-like declines, the year after it'll have negligible sales (and probably a successor looming).

Also, I'd say the vast majority of the games you listed don't qualify as "big" (and some, like another Powapuro, don't even exist yet).  A good threshold for that would be 500k, and as far as that we've got...

PlayStation 3

 

• Final Fantasy XIII-2 (likely 1m plus)
• Final Fantasy Versus XIII (likely 1m plus, 2012 or later)
• Yakuza: Of the End
• Metal Gear Solid Rising (2012)
• Ninokuni: The Queen of Sacred White Ash (maybe)
• Tales of Xillia (maybe)

Wii

 

• Dragon Quest X (likely 3m plus, possibly 2012)
• The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword
• Rhythm Heaven Wii
• Kirby Wii
• Just Dance 2 (maybe)
• Inazuma Eleven Strikers (maybe)

...to be honest, right now it looks like the vast majority of Japan's future 500k plus sellers are headed to 3DS and (maybe) NGP.

Be honest, you know you are trying to make the Wii look good when there's no way to achieve that. Just Dance 2 will not sell 500k. If it does I'll stop predicting the Japanese market. Inazuma eleven won't either, I'm 100% sure. But why set the bar at 500k anyways? Those I've listed will sell 150k . Which is enough to give the console a boost or maintain its relevance.

For example you are leaving aside games like Winning Eleven 2012 or Dynasty Warriors 6 which will sell more than 400k. Also it's quite obvious that Konami is going to release Powerful Pro Baseball on the PS3 this year when you look at the sales of last year's iteration and that's the only game I've listed that hasn't been officially announced yet, don't know which other games you speak about.

I was mainly speaking about the home console situation, portables are another story. Yes, they steal games and sales, but we are debating here whether or not Wii will lose market share based on what we know of each home console's upcoming plans and games. And Wii never went sub 15k during any year before October. Lowest sales have been 10,797 on October 2010 and right now at the beginning of March Wii sales are at 11k. This year support is even more terrible than last year and if sales are this bad so soon, we can only expect bad things. Sub-10k for sure before the second half of the year.