Wii below 60% market share in Japan, where will it finish?

[trestres]

Soriku said:

Gilgamesh said:

Soriku said:

Gilgamesh said:

I think around the end the Wii and PS3 are going to be damn close for Japan sales. Both very roughly around 15 million.

The PS3 is going to more than double what it sold in 4 years despite less heavy hitters than what it's already got? Uh, OK...

PS3 is selling better then it ever has and also has eliminated one of it's biggest competitions, the Wii. Week after week it's easily the best selling home console. Any big games now would make huge spikes in hardware sales unlike anything before, like price cuts, Metal Gear Solid games, Final Fantasy games, Slimmer model (oh it's coming) etc.

The PS3 may not passd the Wii but I say it'll be within 1 - 2 million away from it.

The PS3 has had FF, MGS, Tales, RE5, Yakuza, GT5, WKC, DMC, multiple price cuts, Slim model, Torne, etc. With all that it's still only at 6.3 mil, a huge distance from 15 mil. The biggest pusher of the PS3 is probably the Slim and that came out over a year ago. There really isn't much they could do that could possibly topple what they've already done for the PS3 in the last 4 years. Game spikes won't be enough to bring it to 15 mil.

And the PS3 is outselling the Wii right now...but in a normal week it's give or take by 10k. There's a big 5 mil gap and last year, a crucial year since that's after the Slim was released, it only sold 1.55 mil. I don't think the PS3 is up YoY or anything so how is the PS3 going to make up this huge gap especially since it's not like the Wii's stopped selling. Ditto for 15 mil.

PS3 is down 34k Yoy
Wii is down 175k YoY

Wii was selling at the 35 - 30k level until the end of March, it will now be lucky to sell above the 10k level for the entire Month of March.

PS3 will also be losing sales YoY, but not as many since it's soon getting some big games. In March alone it's getting Way of the Samurai 4, Dynasty Warriors 6, Yakuza: Of the End, Pro Baseball Spirits 2011 and Dynasty Warriors Troy. As well as a handfull of smaller to medium games. Wii is only getting 2 games that will be lucky to sell 20k LT. I'd say that Wii is in a very tough position as 3rd parties are not developing for it anymore. PS3 still has after this March many big games coming up like a new Metal Gear, 3 Final Fantasies (FFXIII-2, FFvsXIII, FFXIV), a new DMC, Ni No Kuni, new iterations of Powerful Pro Baseball and Winning Eleven, a new Tales of game, a new Tekken game, 2 Street Fighter vs Tekken games, a new Ace Combat, Dark Souls, Ni-Oh, a new Armored Core game, The Last Guardian, etc.

Wii only has DQX, Inazuma Eleven, Zelda, Rythm Heaven and Kirby as big games.

I'm sure both machines will also get new price cuts, bundles and colors.

But looking at the above, since Wii is getting an average of 2 new games/month and the announcements are running out, I can only see the Wii dropping more than 50% YoY. PS3 will probably be down as well, but about 10% or so. This is the Wii's last year in Japan as a meaningful console. There simply aren't anymore games coming out and devs are not announcing games anymore either since late 2009.